NOVELTY Daily Harvest

Thursday 8 October 2026 · The morning after

18 picks. 18 settled, and it was a good day — 7 of 18 came in. Every one is listed below with the reasoning we gave at kickoff and how it actually went.

The picks

1. HJK Helsinki v VPS Vaasa Thu 8 Oct · 17:00 SAST Over 2.5 @ 1.74

We fancied this one to open up. Close to the market's own view. At 1.74 it was a fair price.

Full time: 6-0. That one came in.

2. KuPS Kuopio v AC Oulu Thu 8 Oct · 18:00 SAST Over 2.5 @ 1.93

We fancied this one to open up. Close to the market's own view. At 1.93 it was a fair price.

Full time: 0-1. Not to be this time.

3. Shamrock Rovers v Drogheda United Thu 8 Oct · 21:00 SAST Under 2.5 @ 2.25

We called this one as a low-scoring game. Close to the market's own view. At 2.25 it was decent value.

Full time: 3-1. Not to be this time.

4. Santos v Flamengo Fri 9 Oct · 00:30 SAST Under 2.5 @ 2.18

We called this one as a low-scoring game. A modest edge on our numbers. At 2.18 it was decent value.

Full time: 2-2. Not to be this time.

5. Ceará v Criciuma Fri 9 Oct · 00:30 SAST Under 2.5 @ 1.71

We called this one as a low-scoring game. A modest edge on our numbers. At 1.71 it was a fair price.

Full time: 1-0. That one came in.

6. Nautico PE v Grêmio Novorizontino Fri 9 Oct · 00:30 SAST Under 2.5 @ 2.08

We called this one as a low-scoring game. Close to the market's own view. At 2.08 it was a fair price.

Full time: 0-2. That one came in.

7. Santos v Flamengo Fri 9 Oct · 00:30 SAST Over 1.5 @ 1.30

We were on the goals here. Santos and Flamengo had turned their recent meetings into open games — 3 of the last 4 had gone past 1.5. At 1.30 that was a short one.

Full time: 2-2. That one came in.

8. Nautico PE v Grêmio Novorizontino Fri 9 Oct · 00:30 SAST Over 1.5 @ 1.30

We were on the goals here. The recent head-to-head between Nautico PE and Grêmio Novorizontino pointed to a lively one, and at 1.30 it was a short one for the Over 1.5.

Full time: 0-2. That one came in.

9. Atletico Paranaense v Atletico Mineiro Fri 9 Oct · 01:00 SAST Match result - Atletico Paranaense @ 2.22

We were backing Atletico Paranaense at home. They looked the stronger side to us in this one, and at 2.22 it was decent value for the call. Close to the market's own view.

Full time: 2-2. Not to be this time.

10. Fluminense v Coritiba Fri 9 Oct · 02:30 SAST Under 2.5 @ 2.06

We called this one as a low-scoring game. A modest edge on our numbers. At 2.06 it was a fair price.

Full time: 4-0. Not to be this time.

11. Fluminense v Coritiba Fri 9 Oct · 02:30 SAST Over 1.5 @ 1.30

We were on the goals here. Fluminense and Coritiba had turned their recent meetings into open games — 4 of the last 4 had gone past 1.5. At 1.30 that was a short one.

Full time: 4-0. That one came in.

12. Palmeiras v Bahia Fri 9 Oct · 02:30 SAST Under 2.5 @ 2.30

We called this one as a low-scoring game. Close to the market's own view. At 2.30 it was decent value.

Full time: 1-0. That one came in.

13. Daejeon Citizen v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors Fri 9 Oct · 07:00 SAST Under 2.5 @ 2.03

We called this one as a low-scoring game. A price that drifted our way. At 2.03 it was a fair price.

14. Incheon United v Pohang Steelers Fri 9 Oct · 09:30 SAST Match result - Incheon United @ 2.36

We were backing Incheon United at home. They looked the stronger side to us in this one, and at 2.36 it was decent value for the call. A price that drifted our way.

15. Gangwon FC v Bucheon FC 1995 Fri 9 Oct · 09:30 SAST Over 2.25 @ 1.92

We fancied this one to open up. A price that drifted our way. At 1.92 it was a fair price.

16. Kashiwa Reysol v Vissel Kobe Fri 9 Oct · 12:00 SAST Under 2.5 @ 1.98

We called this one as a low-scoring game. Close to the market's own view. At 1.98 it was a fair price.

17. Kashima Antlers v Gamba Osaka Fri 9 Oct · 12:00 SAST Under 2.5 @ 2.35

We called this one as a low-scoring game. Close to the market's own view. At 2.35 it was decent value.

18. Gimnasia La Plata v Atlético Tucuman Fri 9 Oct · 23:00 SAST Under 2.5 @ 1.65

We called this one as a low-scoring game. A price that drifted our way. At 1.65 it was a fair price.

How the day went

Total published18
Won7 (58%)
Lost5
Void6
Awaiting result0
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